The close-to-empty Theewaterskloof Dam, outside of Cape Town, South Africa, in March 2018, showing tree stumps and sand usually submerged by the water of the dam. For several decades, the dam provided over half the water supply for the four million inhabitants of Cape Town. Photo: Theewaterskloof sandscape 2018-03-11 by Zaian, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

In April 2024, residents in Bogotá, Colombia, began rationing water due to critically low water levels in the Chingaza Reservoir System. The rationing system, which impacts over 9 million people living in the capital city, involves rotating 24-hour intervals for household water deliveries, scheduled by neighborhood.

Some 2,000 miles north of Bogotá, residents of Mexico City are grappling with similar water shortages. Water cuts in Mexico City were implemented in May of this year, when the Cutzamala system of reservoirs, which supplies a substantial portion of drinking water to the city’s 22 million residents, reached historic lows. The impacts of water cuts like these often fall disproportionately on lower-income areas.

Both Bogotá and Mexico City are taking drastic actions to avoid a potential “Day Zero” scenario, wherein taps run dry—not temporarily, but in a systemic collapse—due to depleted water supplies. So why are cities increasingly facing such extreme water shortages? Recent research shines a light on the compounding effects of anthropogenic (human-caused) and climate drivers on lake storage. This research provides foundational knowledge that can inform responses to water stress in water supplies.

The stakes of shrinking lakes and reservoirs

The term “Day Zero” was coined in South Africa. From 2015 to 2017, dwindling reservoir storage for Cape Town’s water supply brought the city perilously close to this dreaded scenario. However, in 2018, Cape Town narrowly averted the crisis by severely cutting water consumption to just 50 percent of 2015 levels, coupled with the return of seasonal rains. The city’s experience drew international attention to the vulnerability of urban water systems and the imperative for proactive water conservation measures.

The water availability crises in Cape Town, Bogotá, and Mexico City are all inextricably linked to dependence on lake and reservoir water storage systems. And these municipalities are not alone in facing declining lake and reservoir storage. Globally,  the amount of water stored in lakes has drastically and steadily decreased over the last three decades. Every single year during that period, freshwater lakes around the world have collectively lost water storage equivalent to 17 times the volume of Lake Mead, the largest lake in the United States.

A recent, comprehensive study in Science, led by Fangfang Yao of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder, examined nearly 2,000 lakes around the world and revealed that 53 percent experienced significant declines in water storage between 1992 and 2020.

While the decline of lake water storage alone is staggering, the research went a step further, attributing declines to either anthropogenic or climate-related causes. Yao’s study identifies three primary drivers of dwindling water levels: unsustainable water consumption, increasing temperatures and evaporation rates, and changes in precipitation patterns and runoff.

By distinguishing between human-caused (overuse) and climate-driven (evaporation, loss of precipitation) decline, the research provides crucial insights for policymakers, hydropower operators, and water resource managers. In cases where lake drying is predominantly driven by unsustainable water use, sustainable withdrawal rates should be prioritized, along with demand management measures and efficiency improvements. Conversely, in cases where climate change emerges as the primary culprit, adaptation strategies such as water conservation, diversification of water sources, and infrastructure resilience may take precedence. The attribution of causality in the dataset produced by Yao and co-authors may help lay a global foundation framework for identifying targeted and effective interventions for diminishing lake water storage.

Lake losses due to overuse: The Aral Sea

Along the Uzbekistan/Kazakhstan border, a vast expanse of 5.5 million hectares of desert now covers the historic lakebed of the Aral Sea. Once the fourth largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea has shrunk by a staggering 88 percent since 1920, with subsequent desertification and dust storms impacting surrounding communities. The lake’s decline has been largely attributed to human overuse, a finding supported by Yao’s attribution work. Despite multinational efforts to prevent further lake decline, water levels have not increased in recent years, prompting ongoing reforestation projects to  introduce drought- and salt-tolerant species, such as tamarisk and saxaul, to the region for dust mitigation.

Figure 1. Aerial and satellite images of the Aral Sea taken in 1960 (left) and 2014 (right) showing the extent of the Aral Sea desiccation. The approximate 1960 shoreline of the Aral Sea is marked by a yellow line on the 2014 image. Photos: U.S. Air Force, NASA Earth Observatory.

While the Aral Sea has become a poster child for overuse of water in arid regions, it is far from the only example. From the Maipo River in Chile to the Colorado River in the United States, unsustainable water use continues to dry up lakes and stress water supplies. When overuse is the root cause of lake desiccation, the toolbox for solutions expands: in addition to infrastructure changes, overuse can often be addressed through behavioral changes. Yao and his coauthors highlight Lake Sevan in Armenia as an example where enforcement of water conservation and withdrawal limits has led to increases in lake storage in a previously overused basin. Examples like these may have enormous potential to guide strategies for the Aral Sea and many comparable basins.

Lake Losses due to evaporation: Lake Khyargas

Even in river basins with well-balanced water use and demand, climate-related changes in precipitation and evaporation rates can impact lake levels and water availability. In western Mongolia, a steady rise in evaporation, fueled in large part by underlying increases in temperature, has emerged as a primary cause for declining lake levels. This phenomenon is exemplified by the substantial water loss observed in the saline Lake Khyargas, but similar trends of evaporation-driven lake declines are echoed across much of central and western Mongolia.

The climate-driven increase in evaporative losses experienced in Mongolia is reflected in many arid and semi-arid regions around the globe, and recent studies indicate that global mean lake evaporation rates are expected to increase 16 percent by 2100. These exacerbating evaporative losses have sparked creative and innovative infrastructure-based solutions. A floating photovoltaic array covering the Passaúna reservoir in Brazil was found to reduce evaporation by 60 percent, and covering water bodies in thin films can dramatically reduce losses. Other innovations, including thin chemical films, plant coverings, and bubbling cold water from the depths of reservoirs to the surface, have also successfully reduced evaporative losses.

Levers for change

When observed at a global scale, the supply of freshwater is hundreds of thousands of times larger than human water demands — but on local scales, the mismatch between available water resources and needs is dramatic. And water availability issues reach beyond the physical scarcity of water resources. Local demographic and economic factors, such as income disparities and local regions of water poverty, further exacerbate the challenge. In many areas, access to water is compounded by the cost of water itself, creating an additional barrier for low-income communities and contributing to increased water insecurity. The increased incidence of drying lakes is an indicator of future shifts in the complexity of who can access water and how often.

In the face of complex water uncertainty, developing and utilizing a toolbox of adaptive management strategies is crucial. In basins around the globe, creative management strategies are being employed and implemented in myriad ways, from withdrawal limits to shading of reservoirs. These basins can serve as case studies for one another, exemplifying different response strategies and enabling basin managers to expand their toolbox of solutions.

The attribution of case-by-case causes of declining lake storage doesn’t necessarily add another tool to this toolbox, but rather increases the finesse with which these tools can be wielded. Lakes drying in response to increased evaporation require different responses than desiccation caused by human overuse. The ability to tease apart these differences (and sometimes identify cases where both occur simultaneously) can suggest a path forward to address declining lake storage.

Featured research

Duan, Z., Afzal, M. M., Liu, X., Chen, S., Du, R., Zhao, B., … & Awais, M. (2024). Effects of climate change and human activities on environment and area variations of the Aral Sea in Central Asia. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 21(2), 1715-1728.

Genova, P., & Wei, Y. (2023). A socio-hydrological model for assessing water resource allocation and water environmental regulations in the Maipo River basin. Journal of Hydrology, 617, 129159.

Gleick, P. H., & Cooley, H. (2021). Freshwater scarcity. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46(1), 319-348.

Mady, B., Lehmann, P., & Or, D. (2021). Evaporation suppression from small reservoirs using floating covers—Field study and modeling. Water Resources Research, 57(4), e2020WR028753.

Orkhonselenge, A., Komatsu, G., & Uuganzaya, M. (2018). Climate-driven changes in lake areas for the last half century in the Valley of Lakes, Govi Region, Southern Mongolia. Natural Science, 10(7), 263-277.

Santos, F. R. D., Wiecheteck, G. K., Virgens Filho, J. S. D., Carranza, G. A., Chambers, T. L., & Fekih, A. (2022). Effects of a floating photovoltaic system on the water evaporation rate in the passaúna reservoir, Brazil. Energies, 15(17), 6274.

Schmidt, J. C., Yackulic, C. B., & Kuhn, E. (2023). The Colorado River water crisis: Its origin and the future. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 10(6), e1672.

Wescoat Jr, J. L., Headington, L., & Theobald, R. (2007). Water and poverty in the United States. Geoforum, 38(5), 801-814.

Yao, F., Livneh, B., Rajagopalan, B., Wang, J., Crétaux, J. F., Wada, Y., & Berge-Nguyen, M. (2023). Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage. Science, 380(6646), 743-749.

Youssef, Y. W., & Khodzinskaya, A. (2019). A review of evaporation reduction methods from water surfaces. In E3S web of conferences (Vol. 97, p. 05044). EDP Sciences.

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What is the Inflation Reduction Act graphic by Energy Innovation

What Is The Inflation Reduction Act?

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is the most important climate legislation in United States history. President Biden’s signature climate achievement is giving Americans the choice to stop burning fossil fuels, cutting energy bills, kick-starting a domestic manufacturing boom, cleaning the air and water, and creating hundreds of thousands of good jobs.

Clean energy incentives in the IRA empower the U.S. to transition off fossil fuels through $369 billion in new spending that bolsters clean energy projects, which Goldman Sachs estimates will catalyze $2.9 trillion cumulative investment by 2032. This all happens by investing in agriculture, clean energy, manufacturing, and forest management.

These investments are paying off. Initial modeling by Energy Innovation forecast IRA provisions could create more than a million net new jobs in 2030 and increase GDP by up to $200 billion in 2030. As of June 2024, clean energy investments catalyzed by the IRA have created more than 313,000 new jobs and more than $360 billion in project announcements, primarily in rural and low-income communities. Every $1 of federal funds invested in clean energy is stimulating $5-$6 in private investment, and analysis shows more than three-quarters of all factory and mining investments since the IRA was signed is flowing into Republican congressional districts.

The IRA has helped more than double America’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction pace compared to 2020, put the country within striking distance of its national climate goals, and fueled a homegrown clean energy boom. But unlike past economic recoveries, increased clean technology deployment is decoupling U.S. job and economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions – the U.S. is now on track to cut GDP greenhouse gas intensity 57% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels

That all means Americans can breathe cleaner air today, and will experience a safer climate future tomorrow.

What Benefits Has the Inflation Reduction Act Already Created?

No matter what city or state they live in, every American wants to breathe clean air, drink clean water, have affordable energy bills, and have a good job. The IRA enables the federal government to work closely with local, state, and tribal governments to help resolve community concerns like pollution, reliable energy access, clean air and water, and provide employment.

IRA provisions help unique community needs across the U.S. by empowering states to create bespoke solutions for their citizens. These include investments to add new clean energy generation, build clean manufacturing facilities, deploy affordable clean vehicles, strengthen America’s electric grid, and make our homes more resilient against extreme weather.

The IRA is also generating consumer benefits. Supporting a cleaner grid cuts energy costs: The White House initially estimated that families who advantage of clean energy and electric vehicle tax credits will save more than $1,000 per year. The Internal Revenue Service reports more than 3.4 million American families have already claimed $8.4 billion in residential clean energy and home energy efficiency credits against their 2023 federal income taxes, saving up to $3,100 per year based on the installed technology. And the U.S. Treasury reports the IRA has already saved consumers $1 billion on electric vehicle sales, equal to $18,000-$24,00 in total consumer savings on fuel and maintenance per vehicle

This clean energy economic boom also proves combating climate change is profitable. In the last two years private companies have invested hundreds of billions into U.S. clean energy and transportation projects. Most of these projects are located in five states – Michigan, Texas, Georgia, California, and South Carolina.

Actions That Have Maximized IRA Benefits

In the two years since it was signed, U.S. Treasury data shows implementing IRA provisions has significantly benefited local economies, spurring hundreds of millions in manufacturing investments:

• 81 percent of clean investment dollars since the IRA passed land in counties with below-average weekly wages.
• 70 percent of clean investment dollars since the IRA passed are in counties where a smaller share of the population is employed.
• 78 percent of clean investment dollars since the IRA passed flow to counties with below-average median household incomes.
• 86 percent of clean investment dollars since the IRA passed are landing in counties with below-average college graduation rates.
• The share of clean investment dollars going to low-income counties rose from 68 percent to 78 percent when the IRA passed.
• The IRA has provided more than $720 million in support for Tribal communities as they transition to renewable energy enabling them to become more climate resilient.

IRA provisions have jump-started clean transportation as America’s vehicle fleet transitions from expensive fossil fuels to affordable electric power.

• Income-eligible consumers receive a credit of up to $7,500 to purchase new electric vehicles, including light- and medium-duty trucks along with personal vehicles, and new electric vehicles are now more affordable than conventional gas cars.
• Electric vehicle sales have accelerated to more than 9 percent of total U.S. vehicle sales and are on track to hit 11 percent of total sales this year – up from roughly 2 percent in 2020.
• Automakers and battery manufacturers have announced $88 billion in new domestic factories to produce electric vehicles and their supply-chain components, enhancing our global competitiveness by building a “Battery Belt” across the Midwest and Southeast U.S.

Rebates for buildings and homes are helping U.S. households lower energy costs, improve housing affordability, cut carbon emissions, and enhance social equity.

• The IRA allocated $8.8 billion in federal funding for home and building rebate programs, targeting the one in seven U.S. families who live in energy poverty.
• The Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates (HEAR) program dedicates $4.5 billion to help low- and middle-income households adopt energy-efficient equipment like heat pumps and water heaters, as well as energy efficiency measures like insulation and air sealing.
• The Home Efficiency Rebates (HOMES) program provides $4.3 billion for energy-saving retrofits for single-family and multi-family households, with double the incentives for low- and middle-income homes or dwelling units in multifamily buildings.
• The 45L Energy Efficient Home Credit offers incentives for builders to construct U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-certified Energy Star and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-certified Zero Energy Ready homes, while the HEAR and HOMES programs offers dedicated incentives for contractors that do the work, provided the installation is done in a disadvantaged community.

Electricity is having an infrastructure renaissance as much of the expected IRA impact is from the electricity sector, especially the tax credits.

• Depending on the project, the IRA’s clean electricity production and investment tax credits could cover more than half the cost of clean power plants.
• Since August 2022 when the IRA was signed, electric utilities have announced $488 billion to build 320 gigawatts of clean energy generation across the country, which will save their customers $4.5 billion in costs.
• The new 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit provides a ten-year incentive program to create a domestic clean hydrogen industry that can provide clean fuel options to reduce emissions from manufacturing and transportation.
• IRA funding, combined with Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act funding, represent the largest single investment into rural electrification since the 1930s.

U.S. industrial emissions are on track to be the country’s biggest polluter within a decade, but IRA provisions are powering a Made-in-America clean industrial renaissance.

• IRA funding includes a nearly $6 billion dollar investment to transform America’s industrial sector through the U.S. DOE’s Industrial Demonstrations Program. This funding will commercialize new technologies meant to cut industrial emissions.
• The IRA also allocates more than $4 billion dollars to green public procurement programs for low carbon materials like asphalt, concrete, cement and glass.
• The new 45X advanced manufacturing production tax credit expands domestic production of specific components for wind, solar, and batteries. It also covers the production of thermal batteries, which can eliminate emissions from industrial process heating and cut its costs by two thirds.
• The new 48C project credit directly incentivizes emissions reduction by offering a 30 percent investment tax credit for projects that retrofit an industrial facility with equipment that reduces emissions by at least 20 percent. It also offers a 30 percent investment tax credit to projects that retrofit, expand, or establish new industrial facilities to manufacture clean energy technologies or critical minerals.
• The IRA granted additional loan authority to DOE’s Loan Programs Office, enabling financing for early deployments of innovative industrial technologies.

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Photograph of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia taken in 2020 by Chad Taylor via Unsplash.

Authors of a recent study on climate change communication tested the hypothesis that people will be more likely to act when they believe a particular place that they care about and is a part of their identity (such as the Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, pictured above) is threatened by climate change.

Nearly every country in the world has committed to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) continue to rise. The past year has been the hottest on record, and severe heatwaves in South and Southeast Asia recently caused tens of thousands of people to suffer heat illnesses. As long as the world continues to rely on fossil fuels for energy, temperatures will continue to rise.

As global climate change accelerates, studies in the United States and Ecuador show people are experiencing a range of emotions in response to present impacts as well as to the future projections of loss. The biggest ever stand-alone survey of climate opinion, conducted by the United Nations and the University of Oxford, found more than half of people globally are more worried about climate this year than they were last year.

Scholars who study climate communications are trying to understand how best to motivate people to adopt more sustainable practices and to support government action to transition the economy to clean energy. Varying messages and modes of communication can either increase or decrease the likelihood that people will act. Motivating a larger segment of society to support climate solutions will then increase the likelihood of reducing climate catastrophe.

According to studies of human psychology, emotions such as fear, anger, hope, guilt, and sadness play an important role in shaping human behavior. Recently, a growing number of studies are examining which emotions are more likely to motivate climate policy support, and they’ve found that how we feel about climate does indeed shape whether and how we act. As rapid, large-scale action is desperately needed to halt the current crisis, this kind of research can help advocates hone their messages to reach more people.

Will different emotions produce differing policy support?

In a March 2024 research article entitled “Emotional Signatures of Climate Policy Support,” published in PLOS Climate, Teresa Myers (George Mason University), Connie Roser-Renouf (George Mason University), Anthony Leiserowitz (Yale University), and Edward Maibach (George Mason University) assess how the strength of specific emotions affects an individual’s support for different pro-climate actions. As the authors note, emotional reactions “prime” people to act because they help humans perceive how a situation is relevant to us The scholars are interested to know whether certain emotions might trigger support for particular types of policies. To find out, they examine the effect of four emotions (guilt, anger, hope, and sadness) and support for four different policy types.

The authors posit four hypotheses about how these emotions might function based on previous research findings. First, they hypothesize that because guilt arises when a person feels responsible for a negative outcome, people who feel guilty about climate change will more strongly support “personally costly policies” (e.g., a tax on gasoline). Second, they hypothesize that because anger arises when a person views someone else responsible for a negative situation, people who feel angry about climate change will more strongly support “regulatory policies” (e.g., rules to limit pollution from factories or power plants). Third, the authors hypothesize that because people feel hope when they believe a problem can be solved, people who feel hopeful about climate change will more strongly support “proactive policies” (e.g., new investments in solar). Fourth, the authors hypothesize that because sadness arises when people feel a sense of loss, people who feel sad about climate change will be more likely to support “climate justice policies” that provide restitution for losses.

In addition, the authors examine how fear affects support for each policy type, based on previous research findings that confirm fear can strengthen support for both regulatory and proactive policies.

To test their hypotheses, the researchers used data from a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of U.S. adults designed to measure attitudes and beliefs about climate change, administered approximately every six months since 2010. Respondents were asked how strongly they felt each of the four emotions, and then presented with a range of policy-related questions to gauge support for each of the four policy types.

The authors found that feelings of guilt did indeed lead people to support personally costly actions as predicted, while feeling hopeful about climate change led people to support proactive climate policies. However, the analysis did not support their hypotheses about anger or sadness. Rather, people who reported feeling sad about climate change were more likely to support proactive policies (not climate justice), while people who felt angry were more likely to support proactive climate policies (not regulatory). The researchers also found that people who felt fear were more likely to support regulatory policies. The authors reason this may be because people view regulatory policies as a way to protect themselves from harm. Interestingly, people who felt fear, as compared to the other emotions, were more likely to support all four kinds of policies.

Can negative emotions produce positive outcomes?

Two other recent surveys further test the role of emotions in motivating pro-climate behavior—one focused on the emotions elicited by threats to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia, and the other on how fear of climate and air pollution dangers plays a role in electric vehicle (EV) adoption in growing cities in India. Both shed light on how “negative” emotions, such as distress and fear, can transfer into action to protect the climate.

In the first study, published recently in Environmental Science and Policy, Queensland University of Technology and the University of Queensland researchers Yolanda L. Waters, Kerrie A. Wilson, and Angela J. Dean wanted to see if communicating about risks to natural wonders that are near and dear to people could inspire action to protect those places. Following “Protection Motivation Theory” (PMT), which suggests that people are motivated to act when they perceive a threat to themselves and also have the capability to mitigate it, the scholars hypothesize that people will be more likely to act when they believe a particular place that they care about and is a part of their identity (such as the GBR) is threatened by climate change.

To set the context for their study, the authors note that most Australians “feel a sense of identity and pride towards the GBR, regardless of physical proximity, and agree that ‘all Australians should be responsible’ for protecting it” (p. 3). At the same time, rising ocean temperatures due to climate change threaten the GBR. Half the reef is already dead or dying, and the IPCC projects 90 percent loss by 2030 without dramatic action to cut global GHG emissions. For these reasons, the GBR offers a “unique opportunity” to test the efficacy of climate change communication.

To test GBR-focused climate messages on climate engagement, the researchers first compared the effect of reef-focused to non-reef focused climate messages. Through an online survey, they first attempted to “activate” reef identify through messages such as “the Great Barrier Reef is a place that shapes who we are.” They then compared respondents’ self-identified likelihood to engage in personal energy reduction behaviors and public pro-climate behaviors. The researchers further assessed what specific emotions people experienced (negative: sadness, worry, or anxiety; positive: hopefulness, encouragement, and optimism) and how each emotion affected behavior.

The results confirmed that GBR- focused climate messages increase pro-climate personal behaviors such as personal energy usage—even among political conservatives. However, the GBR messages did not influence support for civic action such as advocating to elected officials. Messages that emphasized “collective efficacy”—e.g., “climate can be solved through group action”—did increase the likelihood that a person would support climate policies. Furthermore, this increased support for climate policies was only associated with negative emotions and not positive ones.

Another study that examines the role of emotions on pro-climate behavior was recently published in Cleaner and Responsible Consumption, authored by Chayasmita Deka (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Indian Institute of Technology), Mrinal Kanti Dutta (Indian Institute of Technology), Masoud Yazdanpanah (University of Florida and University of Khuzestan), and Nadejda Komendantova (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). The research tested the effect of fear on personal climate action—defined, in this case, as a person’s intention to purchase an EV in three rapidly urbanizing cities in the Indian state of Assam.

As the researchers point out, previous studies have found that fear of environmental risks can motivate EV adoption, but research has only been conducted in Western countries and not in the “Global South.” With a majority of young people in Brazil, India, the Philippines, and Nigeria recorded as worried about climate change, the authors seek to close the gap in geographic research coverage. Studies of residents in emerging cities is particularly opportune, as such locales do not yet have high-quality, comprehensive transportation infrastructure. Additionally, the climate threat in India is severe. India is increasingly experiencing more frequent weather extremes as a result of climate change, including worsening heat waves, droughts, and floods. Vehicle emissions have also significantly contributed to major air pollution problems in India’s cities. Even so, demand for personal internal combustion vehicles (ICE) in India only continues to grow.

As in the study of the effect of the GBR on action, the researchers use PMT to test whether people’s perception of the threat of climate and air pollution, alongside  a self-perceived ability to respond to the threat, affects their intention to purchase an electric vehicle.

In this study, the authors surveyed 992 middle-class individuals between the age of 18 and 60 across three cities. The results found that general awareness of the threat of air pollution and climate change had only a small effect on a person’s intention to buy an EV. Respondents who felt personally threatened by climate change impacts were three times more likely to indicate an intention to purchase an EV than respondents who were merely aware of the climate threat.

Additionally, greater understanding of the role an EV plays in improving air quality magnified the effect on purchase intentions—regardless of the respondent’s perception of the personal cost to themself. The authors note that studies of Western consumers found that threat assessment was more important in determining behavior, while in the case of India, knowledge of the efficacy of an EV as an air pollution and climate solution was more influential. As the authors explain, this means that not all messages encouraging pro-environmental behavior will be effective across differing cultural and economic contexts.

Messaging for action

To halt accelerating climate change, more people must be concerned enough that they are prompted to act. The good news is that research on emotions and pro-climate behavior demonstrates that communicators can effectively tailor messaging to motivate people to support personal and public solutions. The first study in PLOS Climate implies that communicators advocating for a particular policy can develop messages to elicit the emotion most likely to produce greater support for that policy type. However, the study only measured strength of emotions and the associated support for policy; it did not test specific messages to see what emotions those messages could elicit. For this reason, advocates should test messages among target audiences before launching a campaign.

Notably, this study found that fear was the emotion most closely associated with support for all policy types. The two narrower studies also found negative emotions to play an important role in motivating behavior. But a few important conditions are worth emphasizing. In the GBR study, negative emotions only increased support for policy action when they were accompanied by messages about the potential to prevent harm to the reef through collective action. This could be because respondents viewed policy change as possible only when many people are civically engaged. In the study of EV adoption in India, fear of harm was also a significant motivator. However, a general awareness of the threat was not sufficient. Respondents had to feel more personally connected to impacts and also believe the proposed action would be effective in mitigating risks.

The lesson for communicators is that communicating about the dire nature of our current climate reality and the immense danger we all face if we do not act now can be effective in spurring action. However, communicators should be specific about the unique threats faced by different communities. For example, those aiming to reach coastal communities may want to emphasize health risks associated with sea level rise, while communicators in farming regions may want to emphasize threats to crops and livelihoods, and regional pests. The more one can tailor the message, the better. Additionally, as the studies imply, messages about climate threats should be paired with concrete guidance for how acting with others can prevent great harm. Though the threat is great, solving this existential climate crisis is entirely possible, and informed communications is critical to motivating action.

Featured Research

Deka, C., Dutta, M.K., Yazdanpanah, M. and Komendantova, N., 2024. When ‘fear factors’ motivate people to adopt electric vehicles in India: An empirical investigation of the protection motivation theory. Cleaner and Responsible Consumption, 13, p.100191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clrc.2024.100191

Myers, T.A., Roser-Renouf, C., Leiserowitz, A. and Maibach, E., 2024. Emotional signatures of climate policy support. PLOS Climate, 3(3), p.e0000381. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000381

Waters, Y.L., Wilson, K.A. and Dean, A.J., 2024. The role of iconic places, collective efficacy, and negative emotions in climate change communication. Environmental Science & Policy, 151, p.103635.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103635

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In Fall 2023, Georgia Power filed an updated integrated resource plan with the Georgia Public Service Commission, warning dramatic near-term load growth predictions from data centers required “immediate action” to meet capacity needs by the end of 2025. Their proposed solution set was a combination of three new natural gas power plants (with a combined capacity of up to 1,400 megawatts (MW)), several fossil fuel power purchase agreements, and a modest 150 MW residential demand response program.

But in Spring 2024, tech giant Microsoft contested Georgia Power’s claims, citing concerns the utility was over-forecasting near-term load and procuring excessive, carbon-intensive generation. Microsoft has three data center campuses under construction in Georgia and is looking to expand to at least two more. The company also aims to have 100 percent of their electricity consumption matched by zero-carbon energy purchases 100 percent of the time by 2030—a clear mismatch with Georgia Power’s fossil-centric plans.

This tension is playing out across the country, as electricity demand is increasing in the United States after more than two decades of nearly flat load growth. Numerous utilities and grid operators are revising their 2023 load forecasts and predicting a doubling or more over the next decade, relative to 2022  predictions.

Electricity Grid Planning Areas with the Sharpest Increase in 2023 Load Forecast. Source: Wilson, John and Zach Zimmerman, The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over, Grid Strategies, LLC, December 2023, https://gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/National-Load-Growth-Report-2023.pdf at 14.

Rapid growth is causing panic over potential capacity shortfalls and insufficient transmission, prompting calls to delay planned coal plant retirements and double down on new natural gas. But these fossil intensive supply side solutions are inherently slow and costly. They’re also incompatible with utility and customer climate commitments to hit net zero emissions by mid-century. Strategic supply side solutions are needed to meet growing demand, but these large investments will show up on electric customers’ bills for decades to come—they should reduce emissions in an affordable and reliable way.

Doubling down on demand side solutions is a cost-effective, least-regrets way to manage growth in the near-term, while unlocking their full potential over the long-term. They can respond to rapidly changing grid conditions and support grid reliability amidst the unpredictability of climate change. Although their decentralized and distributed nature makes them harder to plan for and manage, existing technologies and a growing ecosystem of providers are working to overcome these barriers.

If load growth is causing a crisis of confidence, utilities and grid operators should prioritize demand side solutions and work with customers to deliver valuable grid services. Similarly, policymakers and regulators should adopt policies encouraging demand side resources, increase visibility, enable data sharing, support innovative grid planning methods, and overcome misaligned incentives.

A rapidly shifting load landscape

A May 2024 Brattle Group report documents the rapidly changing landscape for utilities and grid operators, largely driven by new electricity demand from data centers, onshoring manufacturing, agricultural and industrial electrification, cryptocurrency mining, and electrification.

According to the report, in 2023 data centers alone represented 19 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. electricity peak demand, which is nearly double New York City’s 2022 peak load of 10 GW. New research from the Electric Power Research Institute forecasts data centers could consume up to 9 percent of U.S. electricity generation by 2030 – double the amount consumed today. Goldman Sachs estimates 47 GW of incremental power generation capacity will be required to support U.S. data center power demand through 2030, driving $50 billion in cumulative capital investment over the same time frame.

Not all demand sources are created equally. Some have longer lead times and steadier growth rates, like transportation electrification, making them easier to forecast and plan for. Others, like data centers or cryptocurrency mining, are large and can come online on a relatively short time span, requiring huge amounts of energy nearly instantaneously, challenging traditional grid planning and operation paradigms.

Some loads are more elastic and capable of quickly scaling back or shuttering operations in response to changing electricity prices, whereas others may be more inflexible. Electricity customers capable of reducing their impact during peak times could drastically reduce the need for new supply-side resources (thus bringing economic value to the grid and other customers). But, capitalizing on this demand flexibility potential requires adequate incentives.

In addition to the loads themselves, climate-driven extreme weather is disrupting tried-and-true approaches to managing the grid. “Everyone is clutching their pearls over data centers and crypto, but every time we have a polar vortex or a heat wave, similar load increases materialize to serve human needs like heating and cooling, but in a much shorter time span,” says electric reliability expert Alison Silverstein. “We cannot assume demand is immutable. With climate change-driven weather shifts, demand has become less predictable and at times terrifying.”

Residential Electricity Use per Capita and Summer Cooling Degree Days in the U.S., 1973- 2023.
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Indicators: Residential Energy Use, available at: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-residential-energy-use, accessed 06/27/24.

In nearly every state, summer and winter peak loads are higher, longer and harder to forecast. Given the time and money required to build new generation and transmission to meet new demand, Silverstein argues “we can’t build our way out of this.” Now is the time to activate more energy efficiency and demand side solutions, which are cheaper and faster to deploy, and can also buy us time to make prudent supply side resource adjustments.”

A symphony of demand side solutions ready to perform

Like a combination of complementary musical instruments, demand side solutions encompass a wide range of technologies and applications that have the “potential to moderate the growth of both electricity consumption and peak load,” according to Brattle. For example, distributed generation (DG) like solar, wind, and energy storage systems can be paired with smart inverters or smart appliances capable of responding to changing grid conditions; demand side management (DSM), demand response (DR), and energy efficiency (EE) programs can help consumers reduce and modulate their electricity consumption in exchange for economic benefits; and managed electric vehicle (EV) charging programs can respond to economic or grid conditions to reduce the overall impact of EVs on the grid.

Communication and software tools, like distributed energy management system (DERMS), can make dispersed resources visible to utilities and grid operators so they can plan for and manage them in ways similar to larger supply side resources. Third-party aggregators and consumer-facing program administrators also play key roles as liaisons between grid operators, utilities, and consumers, helping streamline the process of recruiting customers, managing incentives, and pooling participating customers into aggregated resource blocks that can respond to grid needs when called upon.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory notes recent improvements in broadband and local area communication and control systems are enabling faster coordination of demand response resources, such as commercial building HVAC or refrigerated warehouse end-uses, so that loads can be managed and dispatched as needed to support grid reliability.

DR programs deployed at scale can be highly effective at managing new load growth and serving existing load while contributing to grid reliability. These programs induce customers to reduce, increase, or shift their electricity consumption in response to economic or reliability signals. Most DR programs encourage utility customers to shift electricity consumption from hours of high demand (relative to energy supply) to hours where energy supply is plentiful (relative to demand). Future programs may signal customers to increase electricity usage when the grid has excess electricity generation from renewable resources like the wind or sun.

According to a 2019 Brattle Group study, nearly 200 GW of cost-effective load flexibility potential will exist in the U.S. by 2030, more than triple the existing demand response capability, and worth more than $15 billion annually in avoided system costs (i.e., avoided investment in new generation, reduced energy costs, deferred grid infrastructure, and the provision of ancillary services). This potential will only expand as more consumers adopt grid-responsive electric technologies and equipment.

Numerous utilities across the country and globe are relying on DR programs to tap into flexible loads on the grid, and they are increasingly valuable in the face of extreme weather conditions. For example, in Texas, following the devastating Winter Storm Uri 2021, municipally-owned utility CPS Energy launched a new winter program that enables the utility to modify consumers’ demand via their thermostats during periods of high energy use. Similarly, during a 2023 summer heat wave in Arizona, the state’s three largest utilities called on more than 100,000 customers, who get incentives for participating, to reduce their electricity use (by modifying their air conditioner temperatures using smart programmable thermostats) by a total of 276 megawatts (MW) during peak afternoon and evening hours. That amount of power is equivalent to just over half the capacity of an average-sized combined cycle natural gas plant. In the United Kingdom, electric utility Octopus Energy’s Flexible Demand trials paid around 100,000 households to shift their energy from peak times in lieu of paying a fossil fuel generator to switch on.

Depending on the program, participating customers can receive substantial economic benefits. For example, Westchester County, New York has received over $361,500 from NuEnergen, LLC for the county’s enrollment in three summer DR programs. Westchester remains on stand-by to reduce its energy usage during times when the grid is strained, and once alerted of an event, the county reduces energy usage at some of its facilities. To date, Westchester has earned over $1.5 million for participating.

Similarly successful programs target businesses and large energy users, often motivated to participate in programs that will reduce energy costs. For example, Ameren Missouri partners with Enel X to offer incentive payments for participating in a program designed “to maintain a reliable and cost-effective electric grid. Energy consumers can earn payments for committing to reduce their energy consumption temporarily in response to periods of peak demand on the grid.”  In Michigan, DTE Energy offers interruptible rates to all its commercial and industrial customers, wherein electricity is discounted 10 percent to 25 percent for customers that agree to shed a minimum of 50 kilowatts and interrupt their electricity within one hour of notification. Failure to interrupt results in a penalty.

These are just a sample of the successful demand side programs across the country. Yet, today’s DR programs stack up to a mere 60 GW of capacity—about 7 percent of national peak-coincident demand—and residential and commercial customer programs make up only 30 percent of that. Some states have less than 1 percent of peak being met with demand side solutions, with only a handful exceeding 10 percent. Extreme heat and cold events can cause residential and commercial heating and cooling loads to make up nearly half of peak demand for some states (like Texas), prompting a closer look at what can be done to mitigate this in the face of increasing climate change chaos.

U.S. Map showing state-by-state percentages of Demand Response as a percentage of peak electricity demand. Source: Hledik, Ryan, A. Faruqui, T. Lee, and John Higham, The National Potential for Load Flexibility: Value and Market Potential Through 2030, The Brattle Group, June 2019 https://www.brattle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/16639_national_potential_for_load_flexibility_-_final.pdf

Energy efficiency is another effective tool, particularly when efficiency programs are targeted to reduce customer energy usage particularly during peak hours. Efficiency measures such as replacing inefficient resistance heating and air conditioners with highly efficient heat pumps, adding attic insulation, duct sealing, and building envelope sealing can all help reduce customer electricity use on hot summer afternoons and frigid winter mornings, while improving comfort and energy savings. According to Silverstein, efficiency measures deliver benefits including better resource adequacy, lower wholesale prices, lower customer energy bills, lower grid infrastructure requirements, improve customer comfort and health, and lower carbon and pollution emissions.

ACEEE’s 2023 study, “Energy Efficiency And Demand-Response: Tools To Address Texas’ Reliability Challenges”, shows that using 10 aggressive peak-targeted energy efficiency and demand response tools in Texas could reduce both summer and winter peak demand levels by 15 GW or more, at costs far below the cost of building comparable amounts of new gas generators. Similar results are achievable in other states.

Shifting from solely supply-centric to increasingly demand-centered

Although demand side solutions have a proven track record of success, we’ve only scratched the surface. The electricity grid is still largely designed and operated to ramp supply side resources to meet shifting demand, not the other way around. And demand side solutions face challenges in their ability to scale, which prevents them from providing grid services. But times are changing, fast.

In the face of rapid growth combined with extreme and unpredictable weather, now is the time to shift away from solely supply-centric approaches to ones that activate demand side resources and flexible loads to their full potential. Looking forward, as the U.S. electric system uses increasing amounts of variable and weather-dependent resources (i.e., solar and wind) to serve demand, we must shift the system to manage demand resources to meet available supply, rather than managing supply resources to chase demand.

Many utilities and grid operators recognize the promise of demand side solutions, but most lack the tools or financial incentives to lean into them as significant, reputable resources to meet new load growth and ensure grid reliability and affordability.

For example, investor-owned utilities earn returns on large capital expenditures (i.e., new generation or grid infrastructure) and forgo shareholder profits when they rely on decentralized resources that avoid those investments. Bulk system planning and distribution planning are typically siloed processes, and few states or grid operators require coordination between the two. Wholesale market rules make it onerous for smaller aggregated demand side resources to participate in serving grid needs. Similarly, regional transmission operators lack visibility at a granular level on the distribution system, preventing them from forecasting and planning for demand side resources at scale. Scaled aggregation of multiple demand side resources into reliable grid resources that utilities and grid operators can see and count on consistently requires proactive regulation and oversight, as well as market maturity among the providers.

At the consumer level, program success hinges on people and businesses being willing and able to participate in programs, which may require adoption of new technologies, and a certain level of trust in their utilities (or retail electric providers) and aggregators. And not all customers contributing to the grid are compensated in proportion to the value they provide (which requires the adoption of forward-thinking policies, incentives, and rates).

Five approaches can overcome these challenges.

First, utilities and grid operators need clearer visibility of demand side resources. Fortunately, a myriad of options exists to help, including adopting DERMS or smart building management systems, utilizing more sophisticated models and control devices, allowing third-party aggregators, developing distribution system plans, and creating publicly available hosting capacity maps for customer-sited distributed generation and storage. A handful of states (CA, HI, MN, NV, and NY) require distribution system planning and mapping the distribution system at the circuit level, and the lessons from these states can inform others just starting down this path. States that require utilities to develop integrated resource plans (IRPs) should also require detailed distribution system plans, and those two efforts should be closely coordinated. A combination of tools can improve transparency about the state of the grid, including which technologies are being adopted and what programs might be suitable for managing load. Ideally, these tools could be combined to inform load forecasts and the development of demand-centered programs that can deliver guaranteed peak savings, alongside other reliability and benefits.

Screenshot of Southern California Edison’s interactive web portal showing granular distribution grid data within the utility’s service territory, including available load capacity heat maps.
Available at: https://drpep.sce.com/drpep/

Second, enable data sharing across the transmission and distribution systems. In a 2017 report, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) issued a set of data-sharing recommendations to support better integration of distributed energy resources into bulk power system planning and operations. This included a detailed list of data important to support adequate modeling and assessment of bulk power system issues (such as substation-level data with aggregated DER data, transformer ratings, relevant energy characteristics, power factor and/or reactive and real power control functionality, among others). Data underpins visibility, but both sides of the grid need to agree on which data are most important and relevant (and how that data can be shared securely). Shared models that can communicate with one another and utilize said data in the same way is also imperative. All data sharing must be done with an eye to privacy and security protections, which also requires agreements among all participating parties as to what gets shared, in what format, and who gets access.

Third, place energy customers at the center of program and rate design. According to Silverstein, activating the full potential of DR and DSM requires “respectful, negotiated limits with customers, who should be treated as partners and compensated fairly—their economic incentives should be commensurate with any perceived or actual sacrifice and with the value they deliver to the electric system.” Effective programs can also function as educational tools, empowering more electricity customers to play a more active role in supporting grid reliability. Whether through incentives or rates, rebates or discounts, programs should be designed with an eye to scaling participation and optimizing benefits for the grid and all participating customers, including residential and lower-income customers.

Fourth, adopt utility performance incentive mechanisms (PIMs) that put demand side resources on a level playing field with supply side resources. PIMs can help shift the profit-motive by aligning profits with performance on certain metrics, like successful DR or energy efficiency programs. In the era of load growth and climate change, PIMs should target measures that provide reliability and affordability benefits for all customers.

And fifth, consider new approaches aimed at attracting more flexible and grid-supportive loads. This should apply across the electricity system from the wholesale bulk grid down to the distribution system. Rate design and tariffs that encourage or require new load sources to respond to and react to grid conditions, economic signals, and reliability needs could obviate the need for more expensive alternatives down the line. For example, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is proposing the establishment of a Demand Response Monitor to assist market participants and grid operators in making judgements of near-future capacity needs. The Monitor will detect a response by selected load responses attributable to locational marginal prices, coincident peak, conservation alerts, and other ERCOT actions. Over time, ERCOT could use empirical data from the Monitor to predict demand response for other reliability applications.

Rather than automatically approving load interconnection requests, utilities could evaluate their approach to cost allocation for grid upgrades or negotiate tariffs that require customer responsiveness under certain conditions. For example, to mitigate the cost of connecting large new loads like data centers, some utilities are requesting upfront payments to cover infrastructure costs and to mitigate the burden of investments on other customers. Google and NV Energy just announced a first-of-its kind clean transition tariff (pending regulatory approval) that enables Google and other energy users to meet growing power demand cleanly and reliably. Another Google pilot will reduce data center electricity consumption when there is high stress on the local power grid. Automakers and utilities are teaming up to expand managed EV charging programs to get ahead of load management before it becomes a problem at the local or system level. In an era in which multiple new loads are competing for the same space on the grid, utilities should consider rewarding those willing to go the extra mile in being a good grid citizen.

As electricity demand grows, so too should the role of demand side solutions. A renewed focus on the load side of the equation will ensure a more cost-effective and efficient grid built to respond to rapidly changing conditions, while also benefiting and protecting customers and mitigating carbon emissions.

The post Let’s Stop Worrying Over Load Growth And Get Serious About Solutions appeared first on Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology.

Part of the What Is series by Energy Innovation to explain Net-Zero.

What Is: Net-Zero

“Net-zero” became a global climate imperative in 2015 when the United Nations determined that to “avoid the most catastrophic outcomes of the climate crisis, emissions must be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 in order to reach net-zero in 2050.”

Since then, more than 140 countries have set a net-zero target while 9,000 companies, 1,000 cities, 1,000 educational institutions, and 600 financial institutions have pledged to halve emissions by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement’s target.

But what is net-zero, exactly? And how can we reach that ambitious but necessary goal?

For climate change, net-zero is like balancing a scale with greenhouse gases (GHG) as the measurement – think of it as an accounting problem, or balancing a checkbook. Reaching net-zero means whatever amount of climate pollution is emitted into the atmosphere is balanced by an equivalent amount being removed from the atmosphere by carbon sinks or carbon removal technologies.

Emissions reductions are the key to reaching net-zero targets, because removing climate pollution from the atmosphere is harder than not polluting in the first place, and technologies to prevent new emissions (e.g., building solar power rather than coal power) are more mature and cheaper to deploy than technologies to remove that pollution from the atmosphere (e.g., direct air capture) after the fact.

Solely defining climate targets via net-zero goals without specific policy details or strict measurement systems also risks accounting tricks by governments or corporations that provide cover for unabated emissions.

The idea became mainstream after the Paris Agreement’s historic signing at the COP21 UN Climate Change Conference. The Paris Agreement quantified net-zero by establishing a goal to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

The world’s six largest GHG emitters –  China, the United States, India, the European Union, Russia, and Brazil – accounted for 61.6 percent of global GHG emissions in 2023. Their largest emitting economic sectors were industry, transportation, agriculture, electricity, and waste.  

Where do Net-Zero Targets Exist

U.S. net-zero targets run the gamut from the Biden administration’s goal of net-zero national emissions by 2050, to Princeton University’s goal of being a net-zero campus by 2040, to Pasadena Water and Power aiming to be net-zero by 2030.

Climate Watch’s net–zero tracker shows the ongoing progress of governmental net-zero targets worldwide. Nearly 100 countries, representing 80.7 percent of global GHG emissions, have shared their net-zero targets. And 149 countries have set goals to reduce their emissions with plans ranging from phasing out coal plants for renewable energy sources like wind and solar to electrifying transportation. Unfortunately, the UN reports these government commitments fall short of the Paris Agreement’s net-zero target.

In 2021, the Biden Administration announced its ambitious target for the U.S. to reduce emissions 50 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, reaching net-zero by 2050. The Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy provisions could cut national GHG emissions up to 41 percent by 2030, and additional policy ambition could reach the 50 percent emissions reduction target.

Many states have followed the administration’s lead by publishing their own emissions targets with notably ambitious plans coming out of Louisiana, Michigan, and Nevada. These plans reflect good state policy to cut emissions because in addition to their collective goal of reaching net-zero by 2050, they have intermediary goals to reduce emissions 28 percent by 2025, and Louisiana is aiming for a 40-50 percent reduction by 2030. California has some of the country’s most ambitious state-level net-zero goals, targeting 40 percent emissions reduction by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2045.

Which Corporations Have Net-Zero Targets?

Anything we create or use on a large scale can be covered by a net-zero target and many companies are reducing their emissions using new technologies.

Industrial manufacturers can reduce emissions through clean energy technology. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Industrial Demonstrations Program has awarded $6 billion to 33 projects demonstrating the ability to reduce GHG from high emitting industrial sectors, and one awardee, Cleveland-Cliffs is using federal funds to replace their blast furnace steel mill with a ‘hydrogen-ready’ iron plant as part of their net-zero by 2050 plan. On a smaller scale, manufacturers like Colorado’s New Belgium Brewery are switching to industrial electric heat pumps to make steam needed for brewing beer instead of relying on gas.

These technologies also scale up. Google is targeting net-zero by 2030 and has begun cutting its emissions. The company’s ‘Accelerating Clean Energy’ program with Amazon, Duke Energy, Nucor,  and Microsoft aims to spur long-term clean energy investments and develop new electricity rate structures. Technology companies like Google are important to net-zero targets, as new data centers increase energy demand alongside the nascent U.S. manufacturing boom and increasing building and vehicle electrification. Fortunately clean energy can meet growing electricity demand without gas through strategies like building new renewables to meet new load or reusing heat produced in data centers.

Policy to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions

Smart climate policy can help reach government or private sector net-zero targets. Both states and countries around the world are working towards meeting their climate goals, including how they can best reach their net-zero targets. In China, India, and the U.S., switching from internal combustion engines that run on fossil fuels to electric vehicles and transitioning power grids to clean energy are helping cut emissions.

Industry – manufacturing everything we use from chemicals to cars – is a growing source of emissions and must be addressed to hit net-zero targets. 39 percent of global GHG emissions come from energy used for heating and cooling, one-third of which comes from the industrial sector. Industry is forecast to be the largest source of U.S. emissions within a decade, and manufacturing everything from chemicals to cars emits 77 percent of national industrial emissions. Government policy that enables industries worldwide to transition away from fossil fuels and reach zero-carbon industry can cut emissions, consumer costs, and public health impacts.

Government officials, corporations, and organizations with net-zero targets have many policy options available to reduce emissions. Several specific recommendations could make the largest

• Policies that encourage faster renewable energy deployment and strengthen the grid:
  • Incentives for renewables
  • Permitting reform for clean energy
  • More efficient grid interconnection processes
• Policies that supercharge electrification:
  • Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
  • New building standards covering electric heating and cooking
  • Robust domestic manufacturing for electrified technologies
• Policies that halt further lock-in of fossil fuel infrastructure
  • Sunset clauses for existing infrastructure
  • Strict regulation for new infrastructure like pipelines or export terminals
  • Subsidy reallocations
• Policies that remove carbon from the atmosphere
  • Forest preservation and better agricultural practices to act as carbon sinks
  • Carbon dioxide removal through technologies like carbon capture and sequestration, and direct air capture

The post What Is Net-Zero appeared first on Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology.

Peri-urban agriculture occurs where urban and rural land blend on a city’s fringe. Photo: Getty Images

Global supply chains are frequently disrupted by economic crises, wars, and political conflicts, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused a unique disruption felt by all. With the widespread damage to economies worldwide, food supply chains became stagnant, jeopardizing food security for many. Both urban agriculture and peri-urban agriculture, which takes place on the outskirts of cities, can contribute to regional food supply and shorten supply chains, enhancing both community control and resilience of food systems. But urban and peri-urban farmers face unique challenges in a rapidly urbanizing world. Emerging research sheds light on common challenges and solutions to preserving the resilience that urban agriculture affords our food systems.

What is urban and peri-urban agriculture?

Urban agriculture (UA) encompasses diverse practices within a city’s limits, from small apartment balcony gardens and raised grow beds in homeowners’ yards to neighborhood community gardens and walkable food forests to large-scale production plots and high-tech commercial rooftop gardens. Peri-urban agriculture (PUA) includes a similar diversity of practices, but occurs at the fringes of urban areas, where urban and rural lands blend. Peri-urban farms can be much larger than urban farms due to land use factors like zoning and land availability. 

With rapid urban expansion, farms that were once rural can be enveloped by a city’s new development. Seventy percent of the global population is expected to live in cities by 2050 (Campbell et al. 2023), and the expansion of cities will continue to push agriculture into the periphery. As cities expand, farmers will have to adapt their farms to more urbanized land use policies and growing conditions (Figure 1) or be forced to relocate.

Figure 1. Characteristics of UA (urban agriculture), PUA (peri-urban agriculture), and RA (rural agriculture). “The attributes of rural and UA result in differences in their ability to meet the food requirements of urban populations. Urban agriculture can meet the same at the household level, while suburban agriculture can provide large quantities and has wide distribution channels. The different characteristics of RA, PUA, and UA create further challenges in dealing with situations according to local conditions and impact on agricultural planning and policy.” Source: Mulya et al. 2023, optimized from Opitz et al. 2016)

In a 2023 review of the benefits that peri-urban agriculture can provide to urban dwellers, also known as “ecosystem services,” Mulya and colleagues note that “many cities, especially those in developing nations, have limited access to fresh water, increased waste and sanitation problems, lack access to green spaces, and have declining public health.” Beyond offering urban residents opportunities to reconnect with nature and assert control over their food systems, urban and peri-urban agriculture can also help to mitigate some of the negative health and environmental impacts associated with urban development. 

Both types of agriculture can offer many environmental and health benefits, including improving livelihoods and community connection, conserving wildlife habitats, promoting physical activity, and providing therapeutic relief. PUA and UA can also shorten food supply chains by reducing the distance between producers and consumers, and add value to waste through the use of local food scraps for on-farm compost or upcycled materials, like wood for raised beds. Well managed agricultural land has also been shown to improve soil, water, and air quality in surrounding areas, as healthy soil increases absorption area for runoff water and plants absorb CO2. 

But farming in and near cities is not without its challenges. Urban land is typically heavily polluted from vehicle outputs, road runoff, artificial light, and human-made noise. Moreover, urban land is scarce and in high demand, making it expensive, and it is often not permitted for agricultural activities.

“Necessity is the mother of invention”

A report from CGIAR Initiative on Resilient Cities showcases several examples of how peri-urban and urban agriculture have improved food system resilience in communities of Sri Lanka and Ukraine during times of instability. The report explores recent efforts to increase food system resilience, comparing them to past efforts. 

When the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, for example, Cuba no longer received subsidized fuel and agricultural products from the USSR and faced a restrictive trade embargo from the US. These changes caused a sixty percent decline in available food for the people of Cuba. In response, Cuba’s national agricultural program directed municipalities and organizations to cultivate all unused land with intensive organic agriculture. While the effort was not enough to feed all of Cuba’s population, it greatly reduced food unavailability. It was an impressive development from Cuba’s national agricultural program, which was essentially non-existent before the collapse and is now a full-force production system of over 300,000 urban farms and gardens that produce about fifty percent of the island’s fresh produce. 

Man tends an organopónico – a government-subsidized system of urban and peri-urban farming – in a suburb of Havana, Cuba, 2012. Photo: Mark Thomas / Alamy

Sri Lanka experienced destabilized food security during the onset of the COVID pandemic, followed by a larger economic crisis that started in 2022. In response, the Colombo Municipal Council in Sri Lanka’s capital city called for the cultivation of food crops on 593 acres of public land within the city – and planted the lawn in front of Town Hall with crops. The Council developed a webpage to encourage schools and citizens to cultivate every inch of bare land, balconies, and rooftops. The central government even gave public servants Fridays off to grow crops, and the army was mobilized to produce organic fertilizer and cultivate state lands. As in Cuba, this was an impressive organizational effort for the Colombo Municipal Council, as there was no government department focused on urban agriculture before the pandemic.

Urban agriculture has become a new necessity for Ukraine’s urban residents as well. Russia’s invasion of the country collapsed supply chains and caused food price shocks around the world. Vegetable prices have risen 85 to 150 percent, eggs have doubled in price, and Ukrainians now spend 70 percent of their income on food (compared to 23 percent before the war).

In response, public and private initiatives and support from the United Nations Development Program and Canada are scaling up urban farming efforts in many Ukrainian cities. These efforts are either entirely new or built upon existing campaigns, like the zero waste and organic food movements. One initiative offered free seeds to vulnerable populations to cultivate home and balcony gardens, similar to the victory gardens of World War One and World War Two. Additional support is also being provided by way of online education on urban farming.

Urban garden beside an apartment complex in a city center. Photo: iStock

What challenges do urban farmers face?

These examples can serve as a blueprint for policymakers and communities looking to bolster resilience in food systems that are increasingly susceptible to shocks from extreme climate disasters, natural hazards, geopolitical strife, and long-term climate impacts on agriculture. But scaling up urban and peri-urban agriculture will require overcoming some of the unique challenges these growers experience. In a recent article published in Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, Catherine Campbell and colleagues conducted a needs assessment of commercial-scale urban farmers in Florida.

Of the 29 urban farmers surveyed and interviewed by Campbell’s team, 90 percent owned or operated farms that had been in existence for 10 or fewer years, and 60 percent were in operation for five years or less. Eighty-three percent of their urban farms were five acres or less, while the average Florida farm is 246 acres (Census of Agriculture 2022). Vegetables were among their top three crops in gross sales, and a majority sold direct to consumers at farmers markets.

Farmers in the Campbell et al. study reported several advantages of farming in urban areas, such as providing opportunities for consumers to visit their farm and/or market stall, which can help to build deep relationships with their consumers.

Another benefit was the proximity of their farms to urban markets, which reduced travel time and cost associated with post-production transportation. Farming near large urban and peri-urban populations also made it easier for the farmers to find employees and volunteers to work on the farm.

But the study also surfaced common challenges facing urban and peri-urban farmers. Proximity to city dwellers was seen as a hindrance by some farmers. Curious neighbors can disrupt work or dislike the smells and noise that come with farm operations. Additionally, organic farmers need to know if their residential neighbors are spraying chemicals on their properties, as organic certifications often specify barrier lengths needed to protect crops from non-organic inputs.

Zoning and land-use regulations are another barrier farmers identified in both the Campbell and Mulya papers. Land use is often decided prior to land development, and city planners often don’t consider agriculture an urban activity. Conducting everyday farming activities, such as building a shed or driving a tractor, on land that is not specifically zoned for agriculture can require special fees and permits, adding time and expense to normal farm operations.
Furthermore, urban land is highly sought after by developers, as agricultural land is not valued as highly as residential land. Residentially or commercially zoned land is valued instead on its potential to be developed as a housing unit or a shopping center. Several farmers even reported being harassed by developers to sell their land for development.

Start-up capital is also limited for urban farmers. Most urban farms do not qualify for the same loans, grants, or subsidies that rural farms do, making up-front investments costly, regardless of farmers’ creditworthiness. This challenge is compounded when urban farmers don’t own their land, which was the case for over half those surveyed in Campell’s study. They have little control over future land use and are vulnerable to land use change, a barrier also mentioned by Mulya and colleagues.

How can we invest in urban and peri-urban agriculture?

Peri-urban and urban agriculture are by no means a cure-all, but they present significant opportunities to enhance food security, resilience, and sustainability in the face of global change.

When asked how barriers and challenges could be addressed, farmers mentioned that targeted government support, such as public assistance, education, grants, and subsidies would be helpful. Researchers also see a need for capacity building within governments to help maintain and develop peri-urban and urban agriculture areas and encourage policymakers to be strategic about how they think about land use change and land valuation (Mulya et al. 2023).

Whether the stresses stem from chronic urbanization pressures or acute shocks, researchers point to several avenues that can help build food system resilience:

• Government Leadership: Governments play a crucial role in promoting and supporting peri-urban and urban agriculture through policies, incentives, and initiatives that prioritize food security and sustainable urban development.
• Land Use Change Mitigation: Efforts should be made to mitigate land use changes that threaten peri-urban and urban farming, ensuring that agricultural land is protected and valued appropriately.
• Zoning: Revisiting zoning regulations to accommodate and encourage urban agriculture can help remove barriers and create a supportive environment for farmers.
• Subsidies, Grants, Financial Capital: Providing financial support, such as making subsidies and grants more inclusive, can help new and existing farmers overcome the high costs associated with urban farming, making it a more viable option.
• Education: Investing in educational programs and resources focused on urban farming can help build capacity, transfer knowledge, and support the growth of the sector.
• Valuation of other benefits: Recognizing and valuing the social, environmental, and therapeutic benefits of peri-urban and urban agriculture can help justify and prioritize its development.
• Further Research: Continued research is needed to better understand how peri-urban and urban agriculture can contribute to food systems, improve resilience, and enhance overall sustainability.

By addressing these areas, policymakers, stakeholders, and communities can promote and strengthen peri-urban and urban agriculture, creating more resilient and sustainable food systems for the future.

Featured Research:

Setyardi Pratika Mulya, S., Hidayat Putro, H. P., & Hudalah, D. 2023. Review of peri-urban agriculture as a regional ecosystem service. Geography and Sustainability, 4(3), 244-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2023.06.001.

Andrew Adam-Bradford, Pay Drechsel (2023). “Urban agriculture during economic crisis: Lessons from Cuba, Sri Lanka and Ukraine.” International Water Management Institute.https://cgspace.cgiar.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7f14f676-0639-4314-8af6-a04549a3fa7a/content.

Campbell CG, DeLong AN, Diaz JM. Commercial urban agriculture in Florida: a qualitative needs assessment. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems. 2023;38:e4. doi:10.1017/S1742170522000370.

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Storm surge from Hurricane Idalia along Bayshore Boulevard, Tampa, Florida. Tampa General Hospital is the yellow building across the channel, August 30, 2023. Photo: Andrew Heneen/CC BY 4.0 DEED

In 2023, hospitals in Florida, Brooklyn, and Los Angeles shut down. Some evacuated patients in preparation for hurricanes feeding off of warming coastal waters, others were forced to close after historic rainfall cut power to a city of nearly four million people. On the other side of the globe, floods and landslides shuttered 12 health care facilities in five provinces in southern Thailand.

Which is why in December 2023, delegates from all 199 countries of the United Nations met in Dubai to attend the first-ever Health Day at a Conference of Parties (COP) summit. The COP28 meeting highlighted the fact that the climate crisis is also a health crisis.

Health care systems around the world are already being strained by natural disasters and heatwaves, something experts predict will worsen in the coming decades.

For example, Pakistan’s devastating floods in 2022 impacted an estimated 1,460+ health care facilities, about 10  percent of the country’s total. The following weeks saw outbreaks of both water-borne and vector-borne infectious diseases, adding to the burden thrust upon the already weakened health care system.

Summer 2023 was also the hottest on record, marked by deadly heat waves and wildfires that tore through forests, seas, and cities.

“The northern hemisphere just had a summer of extremes — with repeated heat waves fueling devastating wildfires, harming health, disrupting daily lives and wreaking a lasting toll on the environment,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.

In Arizona, the extreme heat put pressure on power grids and spurred an influx of people in need of medical care for heat stress. Heat-related emergency room visits rose by 50 percent on days that reached a wet-bulb temperature of at least 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit, a 2021 Taiwanese study found. Simply put, wet-bulb temperatures take into account both heat and humidity, which makes it more difficult for sweat to evaporate and therefore harder for people to cool themselves.

Over the past five years, the number of heatstroke patients admitted to hospitals in Pakistan during the summer months increased around 20 percent annually, the medical director of a Pakistani hospital told The Washington Post. In that time, Pakistan endured three of its five hottest summers.

The recent hospital closures in Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States are representative of a larger trend that’s already in motion. According to the World Health Organization, 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change. A recent paper led by Renee Salas, published in Nature Medicine, used the United States, a country with one of the most robust health systems in the world, to illustrate how climate change will impact both the number of people needing medical care as well as hospitals’ ability to carry out that care.

From 2011 to 2016, floods, storms, and hurricanes caused over $1 billion in damages across the U.S. Using Medicare data from that timeframe, Salas and colleagues found that in the week following an extreme weather event, emergency room visits and deaths rose between 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent, and deaths remained elevated for six weeks following the event.

The researchers also found that mortality rates were two to four times higher in counties that experienced the greatest economic losses following a disaster. Moreover, these counties also had higher emergency department use, highlighting how damage to infrastructure, such as power outages and thwarted transportation, can compound the toll climate change takes on human health.

Future Threats

Between 2030 and 2050, climate change-driven malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress are expected to cause 250,000 additional deaths per year. And climate change is expected to worsen more than half of known human pathogenic diseases, expanding the range of fungal infections and increasing the risk of viral pathogens and mosquito-borne diseases.

At the same time, health care infrastructure will face increasing strain from the impacts of extreme weather –– power outages, flooding, damage to buildings –– as well as from the mounting health issues, infections, and diseases exacerbated by climate change.

A December 2023 report published by XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative), an Australian climate risk data company, estimated that by the end of this century, one in twelve hospitals worldwide could be at risk of total or partial shutdown due to extreme weather.

The researchers used two versions of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to compare the projected risks to hospital infrastructure in two different scenarios of a global temperature rise of about 1.8˚C vs. 4.3˚C by the year 2100. The researchers also examined the increase in climate risk to 200,216 hospitals around the globe from flooding, fires, and cyclones. At worst, fires can completely destroy buildings, but they also create dangerous levels of air pollution and smoke that can land more patients in the hospital and strain those already being treated. Flooding and cyclones can render hospitals unusable.

In both low- and high-emissions scenarios, a significant number of the study hospitals would be at high risk of total or partial shutdown by 2100: 12,011 (6 percent) in the lower emissions scenario, compared to 16,245 (8 percent) hospitals in the high-emissions scenario. Under the worst case scenario, 10,744 hospitals –– more than 5 percent of those included in the analysis –– would already be high risk by 2050. The lower risk scenario doesn’t project a much better outcome, estimating that 10,043 hospitals would still be high risk in 2050.

Figure 1: XDI projections for the increase in risk of damage to hospitals due to extreme weather under a high-emission (RCP 8.5) climate scenario and a low-emission (RCP 2.6) climate scenario.

Human-driven climate change has already increased damage to hospitals by 41 percent between 1990 and 2020. Nowhere is this phenomenon more prevalent than in Southeast Asia, which has seen a 67 percent increase in risk of damage since 1990. On this trajectory, one in five hospitals in Southeast Asia would be at high risk for climate-driven damage by the end of the century. More than 70 percent of these hospitals would be in low-to-middle-income nations.

The XDI report estimated more than 5,800 hospitals in South Asia, an area that includes India, the world’s most populous country, would be at high risk for shutting down under the 4.3˚C increase scenario. More than half of hospitals in the Central African Republic and more than one-quarter of hospitals in the Philippines and Nepal would face the same fate.

Contrary to popular belief, high-income nations are also not immune. The model projected that North America would experience the biggest increase in risk of weather-driven damage to hospital infrastructure by 2100, with a more than five-fold increase compared to 2020.

If world leaders can limit warming to 1.8˚C and rapidly phase out fossil fuels starting now, the data suggests the risk of damage to hospitals would be cut in half by the end of the century compared to the high-emissions scenario.

How Hospitals Can Prepare

Hospitals need to brace for a future with more demand for care and a higher risk of infrastructure being damaged by extreme weather.

In a February 2024 review published in International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Yvonne Zurynski led a team of researchers that used data from 60 studies published in 2022 and 2023 to identify ways in which the healthcare system can build resilience in the midst of a changing climate. Forty-four of the studies reviewed focused on the strains climate change puts on health care workforces, most commonly hospital staff. The same number of studies also reported how hospitals plan to respond to a climate-related event, most commonly hurricanes, followed by floods and wildfires. The plans included how hospitals could minimize staff burnout and safely evacuate patients if needed.

The team found six key ways hospitals and health workers can adapt to the health system impacts of climate change: training/skill development, workforce capacity planning, interdisciplinary collaboration, role flexibility, role incentivization, and psychological support.

For training and skills development, the studies agreed that all health care workers should be trained to recognize and treat climate-specific health conditions, including wildfire smoke exposure, heat stroke, and water-borne diseases.

Infrastructure must be designed to be more climate resilient. Many facilities are susceptible to power outages or are not equipped to cope with wildfire smoke or the loss of running water. Being prepared also includes training staff in techniques to evacuate patients from hospitals that can no longer run due to a climate change-fueled extreme weather event.

Health care systems also need to be flexible and respond to climate-driven health crises as they emerge. This approach encompasses workforce capacity planning, interdisciplinary collaboration, and role flexibility. In practice, such an approach may include hiring care staff with multiple specialties, to ensure health care teams can be flexible when unexpected pressures arise.

Health care systems can also incentivize work during high-pressure events. This strategy could take a physical form, such as compensating staff extra for working during a climate response. It could also be intrinsic. Staff may feel it is their duty to work during a climate-related disaster, feeling a duty to both their profession and the people they serve, the authors write. Both are examples of role incentivization.

To make this approach sustainable, it is paramount that health systems have a network in place to care for their employees’ mental health. Providing psychological support was a recurring theme in the studies Zurynski and her team reviewed. Hospitals could have mental health professionals on call during or after climate events that put pressure on health systems, or recalculate shifts during a disaster to ensure every employee has adequate time to recuperate. A volunteer or reserve workforce that is pulled into action during or following an extreme weather event or infectious disease outbreak could also alleviate some of the stress on health care workers during these times.

Making significant changes to the way hospitals operate may seem daunting, but facilities can start small in their adaptations and create solutions unique to their needs. An example of this approach can be found in a region already steeply impacted by climate change.

About half of all hospitals in Vietnam do not have a reliable source of water, meaning patients often have to bring their own. Faced with this major obstacle to care, three rural hospitals in Vietnam were chosen for a pilot project to make them more climate resilient, starting with water. Water availability in all three hospitals is already a significant challenge due to droughts, floods, and creeping saltwater intrusion.

Despite their water challenges, all three institutions in the pilot found unique ways to guard against existing and growing climate threats through community engagement, installation of rainwater catchment and storage systems, saline filtration, and better infrastructure to capture nearby streamflows.

Climate change impacts are already pushing health care systems into higher levels of risk, and that trend will continue. It’s vital that hospital leadership teams begin shaping plans for climate resiliency, both related to infrastructure and personnel, to safeguard health care on a changing planet.

Cited Resources:

Alied, M., Salam, A., Sediqi, S. M., Kwaah, P. A., Tran, L., & Huy, N. T. (2023). Disaster after disaster: the outbreak of infectious diseases in Pakistan in the wake of 2022 floods. Annals of medicine and surgery (2012), 86(2), 891–898. https://doi.org/10.1097/MS9.0000000000001597.

Borah, B. F., Meddaugh, P., Fialkowski, V., & Kwit, N. (2024). Using Insurance Claims Data to Estimate Blastomycosis Incidence, Vermont, USA, 2011–2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 30(2), 372-375. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid3002.230825.

Cross Dependency Institute. (2023). 2023 XDI Global Hospital Infrastructure Physical Climate Risk Report. XDI Benchmark Series. https://www.preventionweb.net/quick/82047.

He, Y., Liu, W. J., Jia, N., Richardson, S., & Huang, C. (2023). Viral respiratory infections in a rapidly changing climate: the need to prepare for the next pandemic. EBioMedicine, 93, 104593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104593.

Lung, S. C., Yeh, J. J., & Hwang, J. S. (2021). Selecting Thresholds of Heat-Warning Systems with Substantial Enhancement of Essential Population Health Outcomes for Facilitating Implementation. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(18), 9506. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189506.

Mora, C., McKenzie, T., Gaw, I. M., Dean, J. M., von Hammerstein, H., Knudson, T. A., Setter, R. O., Smith, C. Z., Webster, K. M., Patz, J. A., & Franklin, E. C. (2022). Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change. Nature climate change, 12(9), 869–875. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01426-1.

Salas, R. N., Burke, L. G., Phelan, J., Wellenius, G. A., Orav, E. J., & Jha, A. K. (2024). Impact of extreme weather events on healthcare utilization and mortality in the United States. Nature medicine, 30(4), 1118–1126. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-02833-x.

Wang, Y., Zhao, S., Wei, Y., Li, K., Jiang, X., Li, C., Ren, C., Yin, S., Ho, J., Ran, J., Han, L., Zee, B. C., & Chong, K. C. (2023). Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(3), 645–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.008.

Ye, T., Guo, Y., Chen, G., Yue, X., Xu, R., Coêlho, M. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Zhao, Q., & Li, S. (2021). Risk and burden of hospital admissions associated with wildfire-related PM2·5 in Brazil, 2000-15: a nationwide time-series study. The Lancet. Planetary health, 5(9), e599–e607. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00173-X.

Zurynski, Y., Fisher, G., Wijekulasuriya, S., Leask, E., Dharmayani, P. N. A., Ellis, L. A., Smith, C. L., & Braithwaite, J. (2024). Bolstering health systems to cope with the impacts of climate change events: A review of the evidence on workforce planning, upskilling, and capacity building. The International journal of health planning and management, 10.1002/hpm.3769. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.3769.

The post Before The Next Storm: Building Health Care Resilience appeared first on Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology.

Electric vehicle charging by Zaptec via Unsplash.

While electric vehicles (EVs) are not a panacea for reducing emissions from the transportation sector, widespread adoption can be a significant step toward meeting CO2 reduction targets. In a recent study of EV adoption in China, the authors estimate that even a one percent increase in a city’s EV sales can reduce local net CO2 emissions in both the city itself and a nearby city. 

These benefits are especially salient in environmental justice (EJ) communities, where people are disproportionately burdened by environmental hazards such as smog from car exhaust, leading to higher rates of childhood and adult asthma and cardiovascular problems.

Overcoming cost barriers

While lack of charging infrastructure is a key barrier to making the EV transition across the socioeconomic divide, low-income consumers in particular are grappling with two additional barriers: vehicle purchase cost and the risk of high maintenance and repair costs. The good news is that in the U.S., policy interventions and subsidies are poised to address upfront vehicle costs. Clean vehicle tax credits, as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, provide purchasers of used models with a maximum tax credit of up to $4,000 or 30 percent off the cost of the preowned vehicle.

The potential for high repair costs, however, is more difficult to tackle. A 2023 Consumer Reports poll found that EVs are less reliable overall, compared to combustion engine vehicles. In a recent article in Business Insider, the authors note that Hertz is scaling back its EV rental fleet due to high repair costs. If an EV battery is damaged in a collision, it could cost between $5,000 and $15,000 to replace – which is especially problematic for low-income consumers. In a recent article published in the Journal of Planning Education and Research, study authors Klein, Basu, and Smart found that high repair and maintenance costs are the main reason that low-income households transition into and out of car ownership. They tend to buy used cars and, when their cars break down, they are unable to pay for repairs. Among those surveyed who lost access to their car (1,103 of 3,358 total respondents), 32 percent experienced job loss as a result, and 58 percent reported that job opportunities decreased.

Impacts on health and well-being

Low-income households surveyed who had lost access to a car noted, too, that it impacted health care and caregiving responsibilities because they no longer had a car to access medical care or to bring children to school.

In addition, 52 percent of those surveyed reported a negative effect on their quality of life. Interestingly, for a minority, the loss of a car improved their quality of life, as they were relieved to be free of the financial burden. However, as Klein and colleagues found, 78 percent of survey respondents agreed that the vehicle purchase was “worth it.”

Figure 1. Klein et al.’s (2023) findings of the impacts of car loss and car gain on low-income households. Source: Klein et al., 2023.

Advancing equitable policy solutions

So what are equitable policy solutions that will set society on a trajectory to reduce both transportation sector emissions and asthma in EJ communities, without overburdening the most vulnerable with the risk of losing their cars because of high repair costs?

While EV subsidies are a good way to encourage low-income households to enter the EV market, policy makers must also consider the full lifecycle costs of vehicle ownership and the risk of the most vulnerable households having to transition out of car ownership if costly maintenance and repairs are required. Strategic investments in EV adoption by institutions that can afford to incur that risk is one pathway to improving the overall affordability of EVs in the long term.

Investments in EV government fleets and public transportation are a win-win for low-income communities

At the community level, investing in EV heavy-duty fleets (school buses, delivery vehicles) makes sense right now. The overall costs of EVs, including operation, service, and maintenance over the life of the vehicles, is estimated to be on par with or lower than combustion engine vehicles, especially when the high cost of diesel fuel is factored in. Subsidies and policies that facilitate the transition to cleaner heavy-duty vehicles are especially beneficial to EJ communities, as the link between diesel emissions and higher asthma rates for Black and Latino children in communities overburdened by pollution is well-established (AAFA 2005; Weir 2002).

One great example of a subsidy targeted at the community level is Clean School Bus Rebates (CSB), an Environmental Protection Agency program funded through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. It provides subsidies to school bus fleet owners to replace existing fleets with clean and zero-emission vehicles, as well as subsidies for EV charging infrastructure. For the 2023 application, the EPA estimates allocating $500 million in total funding.

EVs improve environmental quality

A common criticism of electric vehicles is the associated rise in emissions for the electricity generation required to charge the vehicles.

In an article in Heliyon documenting the impact of EVs on the environment and carbon emissions, Xiaolei Zhao and colleagues found that when internal combustion engine vehicles are replaced by EVs, there are significant reductions in emissions, even when 50 percent of the electricity is generated by fossil fuels. T The authors demonstrate that the net emissions impact of EV adoption is likely negative, as CO2 reductions from a transition to EVs would outstrip the increase in emissions due to increased consumption of electricity. Emissions reductions are expected to come from both the direct substitution of internal combustion engines with EVs, and EV manufacturer-led increases in technological innovation in the transportation sector,, which are expected to reduce traffic congestion and associated emissions.

One important caveat is the moderating effect of the energy structure. Expanded EV adoption could spur increases in the carbon emissions of cities that are wholly reliant on fossil fuel energy generation, though this increase is likely temporary as grids shift to include more renewable energy sources. From an environmental quality perspective, it still makes sense for environmental justice communities to invest in EV fleets, which will provide direct air quality benefits today, deliver potential carbon reduction benefits in the near future, and advance equity in access to EV charging.

Thanks to hefty government subsidies and consumer demand, trends suggest that in the next few years,  , reliability will improve, and charging networks will scale up and become more equally distributed across low-income neighborhoods.  They are also well on their way to becoming a smart choice for low-income consumers in the coming decade as vehicle affordability improves.

Featured Research:

Klein, Nicholas J., Rounaq Basu, and Michael J. Smart. 2023. “Transitions into and out of Car Ownership among Low-Income Households in the United States.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 0739456X2311637. doi: 10.1177/0739456X231163755.Zhao, Xiaolei, Hui Hu, Hongjie Yuan, and Xin Chu. 2023. “How Does Adoption of Electric Vehicles Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from China.” Heliyon 9(9):e20296. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20296.

Linked News Articles:

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/electric-vehicles-are-less-reliable-than-conventional-cars-a1047214174/ Accessed Jan 22 2024.

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-service-maintenance-car-buyers-tips-dealers-cost-2023-2

See https://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/linking-air-pollution-and-heart-disease

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxused.shtml

The post Reducing The Risk Of Investing In Electric Vehicles For Low-Income Consumers appeared first on Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology.

A root-dense sample of wet meadow soil. Photo: Asa DeHaan/AGCI

The Unseen World

Beneath the ground, a diverse ecosystem teems with microscopic life. The soil microbiome is a complex life system dominated by bacteria, fungi, viruses, and numerous other microorganisms. This cast of players performs many functions from nitrogen fixation (converting nitrogen from the atmosphere to a form that plants can more readily use for growth) to decomposition to carbon storage. Compared to the volume of science conducted above ground, relatively little is known about this hidden world, but recent research is opening new windows into how microbiomes may shape and be shaped by a changing climate.

The Plant-Microbe Relationship 

The relationship between microbes and plants is particularly complex (Fig. 1) and has direct consequences for agricultural productivity. However, climate change may alter the function and composition of soil microbial communities. Drought is already having widespread impacts on plants and microbiomes, with consequences for agriculture and rangeland productivity around the world. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report found that as the climate changes, many regions experience more frequent and more intense droughts. For many areas, rising temperatures translate into increased water loss from soils and water bodies, changes to patterns and duration of snow cover, and shifts in the timing and intensity of precipitation events (IPCC AR6, Chpt 11). Still in question is how ecosystems, and the microbiomes they are grounded in, will adapt.

Fig 1: Jansson et al. Soil microbiome-plant interactions

Amidst these environmental shifts, researchers are considering the capabilities of plant-microbe interactions to offer a pathway to resilience. In a review of the literature on microbial potential to support successful sustainable agriculture published in the journal Microbes, Antoszewski and colleagues found that microbes can improve plant resilience to environmental stressors. Plants attract “stress microbiomes” through a chemical signal, which allows the plants to adapt to environmental conditions, such as drought, by improving water use efficiency, plant water content, CO₂ assimilation rates, chlorophyll content, and plant productivity. Drought affects not only plant growth and yield but also the composition and functionality of the soil microbiome. The presence of drought-resistant bacteria increases under drought conditions. Deeper understanding of the symbiosis between plants and stress microbiomes in the soil could illuminate potential strategies for enhancing plant survival in drought-prone areas amid climate change.

However, a new greenhouse experiment by University of Illinois researchers Ricks and Yannarell indicates that some soil microbial communities may adapt to drought independent of plant signals. The researchers observed plant health under contrasting conditions of water availability. Using a soil mix that included field samples from a local restored tallgrass prairie, they created pots that were either planted with mustard plants (Abidopsis thaliana or Brassica rapa) or left as bare soil. Over the course of three plant generations, different groups of pots received different watering regimes, with some pots experiencing simulated drought. For a fourth and final generation of plants, the researchers compared how well plants performed based on their watering history vs. the watering history of the soils in which they were planted.  They found that soil microbes appeared to adapt to their environments (either wet or dry) regardless of whether or not their associated host plants were present at the time of simulated drought. Further, plants introduced into formerly unplanted, drought-exposed soils performed better under future water-limited conditions than plants grown in soils whose microbes had not previously undergone simulated drought. While Ricks and Yannarell acknowledge that their experiment focuses on only a small subset of microbe-host plant interactions, the study opens new questions about the potential for plant-independent microbial adaptation to drought and outcomes for plant survival in regions facing a drier future.

Recent research from J.M. Lavallee and colleagues published in Nature Communications found that land management practices may also play a role in determining how drought influences soil microbial communities. The study was carried out across a series of mesotrophic grasslands (meadows used for haymaking and pasture) in the United Kingdom and found that intensive grassland management, characterized by regular application of fertilizer and lime, favors drought-resistant soil microbial bacteria. By contrast, the same intensive management practices had the opposite effect on fungal taxa, leading drought-sensitive fungi to comprise a larger portion of the overall fungi community in the soil. This differential response between bacteria and fungi under varying management intensities suggests that intensive management may favor bacterial dominance over fungi following drought. Because bacteria and fungi perform different (although sometimes overlapping) functions in the soil, shifts in the dominant composition of the community could have implications for plant species composition, ecosystem drought resilience, and even carbon storage.

Players In The Carbon Cycle

Simultaneous research on the carbon cycle suggests that microbial communities may be more important than previously understood when it comes to estimating alterations to the climate. One such study by Heidi-Jayne Hawkins and colleagues looked at mycorrhizal fungi, commonly found across many landscapes. Through a symbiotic relationship, the soil fungi help certain plants absorb water and nutrients from the soil, receiving carbohydrates in return. During this process, the fungi transport carbon to deep soil layers, contributing to long-term carbon storage (Fig. 2).

When mycelium, the fungal threads, die, they become “necromass,” an organic material that helps to form and stabilize soil aggregates, which protect soils from erosion and decomposition and stabilize soil organic carbon. Looking at 194 datasets to estimate the total carbon storage pool associated with mycorrhizae, Hawkins and colleagues estimated that plant hosts allocate (at least temporarily) around 13.12 metric gigatons of carbon dioxide a year to soil fungi around the globe. This volume, equal to roughly a third of from fossil fuels, suggests that mycorrhizal fungi contribute more to the building of soil organic carbon pools than either living fungal biomass or plant litter. The researchers assert that a quantitative assessment of carbon storage resulting from mycorrhizal-plant interactions is critical to more fully understanding carbon fluxes and better modeling future rates of climate change.

Figure 2: Illustration of the mechanisms by which mycorrhizal fungi help gain and lose carbon in soil. (Hawkins et al, 2023)

A current research review by Mason et al. similarly calls for more attention to the role of microbiomes by looking at how soil amendments and inoculations impact microbiomes and carbon storage. The review discusses both fungi and bacteria, noting how different microbes are intertwined with carbon cycle processes. While the relationship of soil fungi in carbon storage has been studied, the role of soil-bound bacteria has not been examined as closely, even though some bacteria appear to play a similar role as fungi in carbon storage. For example, one group of bacteria, Actinomycetes, can produce a filamentous structure that can store carbon underground. These bacteria can contribute to soil biomass and necromass and are capable of surviving extreme conditions. However, much remains unknown about soil bacterial capacities in building carbon sequestration.

Climate Resilience And The Future

These recent explorations into the soil microbiome uncover a vast, intricate world beneath our feet, where microorganisms play vital and rapidly changing roles in agriculture, climate resilience, and carbon sequestration. As climate change alters our landscapes, studies such as those by Antoszewski et al., Ricks and Yannarell, Hawkins et al., and Lavallee et al. shed light on the adaptability of microbial communities and their potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change or even climate change itself. But even as this current boom in research uncovers the complex network of interdependence humans rely on from the ground up, it also reveals many areas still ripe for further investigation.

Featured Research

Lavallee, J.M., Chomel, M., Alvarez Segura, N. et al. Land management shapes drought responses of dominant soil microbial taxa across grasslands. Nat Commun 15, 29 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43864-1

Mason, A. R. G., Salomon, M. J., Lowe, A. J., & Cavagnaro, T. R. (2023). Microbial solutions to soil carbon sequestration. Journal of Cleaner Production, 417, 137993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137993

Hawkins, H.-J., Cargill, R. I. M., Van Nuland, M. E., Hagen, S. C., Field, K. J., Sheldrake, M., Soudzilovskaia, N. A., & Kiers, E. T. (2023). Mycorrhizal mycelium as a global carbon pool. Current Biology, 33(11), R560-R573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.02.027

Ricks, K.D., & Yannarell, A.C. (2023). Soil moisture incidentally selects for microbes that facilitate locally adaptive plant response. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 290 29020230469. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0469

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